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Solar will 'become dominant electricity source' |
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6 Mar 2015, 3:55 PM
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The solar market is set to expand 10-fold by 2030 with the technology heading towards becoming the world's dominant electricity source, according to analysts from Deutsche Bank.
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In a new report seen by RenewEconomy, the company expects solar power to be generating $5tr in revenues in 15 years' time, displacing large amounts of fossil fuels. Around 130GW of solar capacity is currently installed, accounting for about one per cent of the 6,000GW - or $2tr - global electricity market.
By 2050, Deutsche Bank suggests solar's share will be 30 per cent of the market, with markets in developing countries such as China, India, South Africa and nations from the Middle East and South America experiencing the greatest growth.
Key to the rise is the economics of solar power. Four years ago, the ratio of coal-based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1, but now this is less than 2:1. Plummeting prices have seen solar reach grid parity in more than half of countries, including nations across the Middle East and central and south America. Within two years, solar is expected to be cost comparative with grid electricity in 80 per cent of countries.
Cost-competitive energy storage, described as the "next killer app", will further catalyse the market by overcoming difficulties accessing the grid, the report said.
"We expect solar sector's dependence on subsidies to gradually decrease over time, policy outlook to become more supportive and economics to take over politics over the next three years," RenewEconomy quotes the report as saying.
However, Deutche Bank notes policy will still play a role, particularly in driving off-grid applications. "Even today, 20 per cent of the world's population does not have access to grid electricity," the report notes. "Due to declining costs and ability to deploy the technology without really developing the grid, we expect policy makers in developing countries to proactively promote solar."
Credits:: BusinessGreen
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